Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
